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How Not To Beat The Market

Late last year I wandered into a newsagency and was blinded by the bright cover of Your Money Magazine, telling me how I could “Beat the Market!”

I couldn’t resist picking up a copy to find out how.

It did seem a waste of $7.95, but the cover also told me it had been featured on Today Tonight and with an endorsement like that, how could I refuse?

After flicking through the pages and looking at the shares they said would boom, the places they said property would boom and what currencies we should be trading to make a motza, I put the magazine aside to revisit at a later date.

This week I dusted off the magazine to see how some of those predictions of turned out and more importantly how they fared against the wider market.

There were 21 stocks featured, many being resources, while the others ‘defensive’ picks.

Out of the 21, only six actually went up, with four of those being meagre increases.

The two impressive performers were CSL, up 41% and Azimuth Resources up 40%.

The real duds were Venturex Resources down 57% and Carabella Resources down 71%.

Interestingly, Carabella Resources came with an analyst’s recommendation of being ‘technically well supported’, giving the impression the downside was limited, and ‘at the current level, the share price could easily double.’

And as easily it showed it could lose nearly three quarters of its value.

The average return across the whole 21 shares was a loss of 14.3%

Given the market conditions it may not seem like a big surprise.

That’s until you find the ASX All Ordinaries had still returned a gain of 3.03% since these shares were recommended as ‘ready to boom’ by ‘leading analysts’.

Now you can pick any time frame to prove any point you like, but if the people who are paid to predict the next hot stock are underperforming the market by over 10%, what value do they offer?

$7.95 not so well spent!

Peter Mancell is a director of Mancell Financial Group and FYG Planners AFSL/ACL 224543. This information is general in nature and readers should seek professional advice specific to their circumstances. Need help with your financial your financial future, we think we’re  the  best financial adviser in Australia.